Our city surpassed 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases over the weekend. Most individuals are recovering at home under isolation guidelines. About a quarter of those affected are currently under care at area hospitals. There are still a number of potential-cases (persons under investigation) awaiting test results that have been admitted to the hospital with severe symptoms. Two of our city’s residents have, sadly, died due to the virus.
There are a few considerations that I would like to bring to your attention while trying to make sense of these numbers and the numbers around the country.
The influx of testing is revealing an influx of cases.
I mentioned elsewhere, as testing becomes more available, we will naturally identify more cases. The initial influx obscures our ability to know where we are on the curve, and it is not an accurate indicator of whether or not we are successfully flattening that curve. While it is disheartening to see the numbers grow, do not be discouraged.
The early cases are more likely to have more severe symptoms.
Not everyone is eligible for testing at the moment, as test kits and laboratory capacity are still limited. In these early stages, only people with symptoms and a prescription from a physician are eligible. For this reason, those with most concerning symptoms are the most likely to appear at hospitals or testing centers. This skews the numbers, particularly the rate of hospital admissions.
The early case fatality rate will appear higher than it really is.
The early case fatality numbers are not accurate. It will seem as though a higher percentage of COVID-19 patients are dying than we expected. The reason is because we do not have an accurate denominator to calculate the correct rate. Not all cases have been identified yet, nor has enough time passed for us to know the fate of those cases that have been identified. And again, those early confirmed cases are more likely to have severe symptoms and, as a result, worse outcomes.
Pay attention to the hospital admissions rate.
Hospital admissions, mainly the change in admissions over time, will be the true measure of where we are on the curve and how well we are doing to flatten it. We want to see the day-to-day change in number of new COVID-19 hospital admissions to be flat or, ideally, decreasing over time. Rapid increases in this number is what we want to avoid most.
COVID-19 is still spreading.
Regardless of why, the number of COVID-19 cases is increasing. In our city, in your city, around the country, and around the world. These numbers still only represent a fraction of current and future cases.
Lives will be saved or lost depending on whether hospitals and staff have the ability – the space, the time, the equipment – to care for those who need it most. This also means the ability for healthcare providers and first responders to protect and care for themselves.
This is where you and I staying in our houses becomes so important. Stay home. Slow the spread. Save lives.