The following is a transcript of my remarks made during the weekly public address of the Office of the Mayor, Bayonne, NJ – May 28, 2020
My name is Michael Rosanoff and I am an epidemiologist and public health professional proudly serving as a member of the Bayonne COVID-19 taskforce, under the Office of Emergency Management and the leadership of Mayor Davis.
I would like to take this opportunity to briefly discuss the journey that we have all been on for the last 11 weeks, since the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on March 11th, and since Bayonne began implementing efforts to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus in our City.
I would like to discuss where we began, how we got to where we are today, and what we might expect over the coming weeks to months as we continue to address the pandemic in our community.
Bayonne, NJ had its first confirmed COVID-19 case on March 18th. Nearly one week earlier, any parent of a school-age child in Bayonne will know, the decision was made to preemptively close schools. This was a critically important step taken to slow the spread of the virus and to protect our children and teachers.
Shortly thereafter, restaurants were restricted to take-out only, retail stores were closed to customers, and our state’s directives to stay at home began. Essential services like grocery stores remained open, but the number of customers were limited, senior shopping hours were added, and anyone out in public was asked to stay six feet apart. Our world of “social distancing” had begun.
Why did our City and our State take these measures? The purpose was to slow the spread of the virus and “flatten the curve.” This term was used to describe how reducing our exposure to one another could reduce the rate of new COVID-19 infections, and avoid a potential tidal wave of new cases in a short period of time.
The fear was that a rapid surge in cases could overwhelm our hospital system and limit our ability to treat patients, as beds, ventilators, and personal protective equipment were all in limited supply.
Fortunately, we never got to that point in Bayonne. We certainly came close, but our front-line healthcare workers remained strong. Our community remained strong. Because we listened, stayed at home, and followed the social distancing guidelines, we were able to flatten the curve and slow the spread.
This brings us to where we are today. We are at a place where we are seeing a consistent and steady decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases and new hospital admissions. We have met criteria to begin to reopen aspects of society, but will need to do so slowly and in stages.
We should be proud of our collective commitment to slowing the spread of the virus, and be hopeful that the worst is behind us. However, we should not mistake this moment as the end of the pandemic.
While our goal has always been to slow the spread of COVID-19, we also know that it will take more work to stop the spread altogether. What we know about infectious diseases is that a certain percentage of the population needs to have immunity to the virus before we can stop its spread.
Some scientists estimate that 60-80%, or up to 8 out of 10 people, need to have immunity to COVID-19 for new infections to stop. We do not know how many people have immunity to COVID-19 today, but it is likely well under that number.
It is still unclear whether recovering from COVID-19 and having antibodies to the virus is enough to be immune from re-infection. What we do know is that the preferred way of achieving that 60-80% immunity is by finding a COVID-19 vaccine. While there are some promising clinical trials taking place, and the studies are being accelerated, a vaccine is not expected to be available before the end of 2020.
What this means is that we are not out of the woods yet. We shouldn’t be fearful but we must be mindful that the virus is still out there, it is still highly contagious, and it can still cause very serious illness for some people.
As the weather is turning nicer and society begins to re-open, it might be more difficult to adhere to the social distancing guidelines, but we must continue to do so. Though we may no longer be told to stay at home, we are still safer at home.
We must continue to maintain six feet distance from others, not only in supermarkets but at the park, or walking the Bayonne bridge, or anytime we are out in public. And research has shown that wearing a face covering does significantly reduce the spread of respiratory droplets that carry the coronavirus – so continue to wear a face covering in public, and always wear one when you may not be able to maintain six feet distance from others.
Many of us will want to visit with family and friends that we haven’t seen in weeks. The best guidance is to continue to limit your exposure to others outside of perhaps a small and select circle of trusted family and friends. Choose your small circle and stick with it. This is not the time for large gatherings.
Most importantly, we must protect our family, friends, and members of the community at highest risk of severe illness from COVID-19, including our seniors and those with other health conditions.
If we remain vigilant, we will continue to see a steady decline and plateau of new COVID cases through the summer months. But we also must prepare ourselves and our community for the possibility of a resurgence of the virus and another wave of cases, particularly as we get into fall and winter, when we will start to see cases of seasonal flu as well.
While we continue to be hopeful, we must not let our guard down. And if we do start to see a resurgence, we will be ready. Bayonne has demonstrated that, as a community, over the last 11 weeks, we will do what it takes to protect our loved ones and neighbors.
Let’s all continue to recognize the incredible work and sacrifice of our front-line essential workers and emergency personnel. And let’ remember those in our community, and around the country and world, who have lost their lives or family members to this pandemic.
Thank you again for following the guidelines. Please continue to wear a mask, wash your hands, and practice social distancing. And to stay strong as we overcome the pandemic together.